Gastric and duodenal cancer in individuals with Lynch syndrome: a nationwide cohort study

Background: Lynch syndrome increases the risk of gastric cancer (GC) and duodenal cancer (DC), particularly in individuals with MLH1 and MSH2 pathogenic variants (PVs). To provide further insight into whether, and from what age, esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) surveillance may be beneficial, we evaluated the cumulative incidence and tumour characteristics of GC and DC in a large nationwide cohort of Dutch individuals with LS. Methods: For this retrospective nationwide cohort study, clinical data of individuals with LS registered at the Dutch Hereditary Cancer Registry were matched with pathology reports filed by the Dutch Pathology registry. All individuals registered between Jan 1, 1989 and Dec 31, 2021 with proven or putative PVs in one of the mismatch repair genes were included. Cumulative incidences of GC and DC were estimated for high-risk (MLH1, MSH2 and EpCAM) and low-risk (MSH6 and PMS2) PVs using competing risk methodology (Fine and Gray method) with death due to other causes as competing risk. Findings: Among 1002 individuals with high-risk and 765 individuals with low-risk PVs, 29 GCs (1.6%) and 39 DCs (2.2%) were diagnosed. Cumulative incidence of GC and DC under the age of 50 was very low (≤1%) for all individuals. At age 70 and 75, cumulative incidence of GC was 3% [95% CI 1%–5%] and 5% [3%–8%] for high-risk PVs and 1% [0%–2%] and 1% [0%–2%] for low-risk PVs (p = 0.006). For DC, cumulative incidence at age 70 and 75 was 5% [3%–7%] and 6% [3%–8%] in high-risk, 1% [0%–1%] and 2% [0%–4%] in low-risk PVs, respectively (p = 0.01). Primary tumour resection was performed in 62% (18/29) of GCs and 77% (30/39) of DC cases. Early-stage GC, defined as TNM stage I, was found in 32% (9/28) of GCs. Early-stage DC, defined as TNM stage I-IIa, was found in 39% (14/36) of DCs. Interpretation: Individuals with MLH1, MSH2, and EpCAM PVs have an increased risk of developing GC and DC at the age of 70 years, but this risk is very low before the age of 50 years. The age of onset of surveillance, the yield of GC and DC during EGD surveillance, and its cost-effectiveness should be subject of future studies. Funding: None.