Developing a symptoms-based risk score for infectious syphilis among men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND: Syphilis incidence is rising among men who have sex with men (MSM). An online tool based on a risk score identifying men with higher risk of infectious syphilis could motivate MSM to seek care. We aimed therefore to develop a symptoms-based risk score for infectious syphilis.

METHODS: We included data from all consultations by MSM attending the Amsterdam Centre for Sexual Health in 2018-2019. Infectious syphilis (ie, primary, secondary or early latent syphilis) was diagnosed according to the centre's routine protocol. Associations between symptoms and infectious syphilis were expressed as odds ratios (OR), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Based on multivariable logistic regression models, we created risk scores, combining various symptoms. We assessed the area under the curve (AUC) and cut-off based on the Youden Index. We estimated which percentage of MSM should be tested based on a positive risk score and which percentage of infectious syphilis cases would then be missed.

RESULTS: We included 21,646 consultations with 11,594 unique persons. The median age was 34 years (IQR 27-45), and 14% were HIV positive (93% on antiretroviral treatment). We diagnosed 538 cases of infectious syphilis. Associations with syphilis symptoms/signs were strong and highly significant, for example, OR for a painless penile ulcer was 35.0 (CI 24.9 to 49.2) and OR for non-itching rash 57.8 (CI 36.8 to 90.9). Yet, none of the individual symptoms or signs had an AUC >0.55. The AUC of risk scores combining various symptoms varied from 0.68 to 0.69. For all risk scores using cut-offs based on Youden Index, syphilis screening would be recommended in 6% of MSM, and 59% of infectious syphilis cases would be missed.

CONCLUSION: Symptoms-based risk scores for infectious syphilis perform poorly and cannot be recommended to select MSM for syphilis screening. All MSM with relevant sexual exposure should be regularly tested for syphilis.