Estimation of the incidence of tuberculosis in the Netherlands in 2030 Projectie van het aantal tuberculosepatiënten in Nederland in 2030

Objective. To estimate the number of cases of tuberculosis (TB) in 2030 for the purpose of planning future TB control. Design. Statistical modelling in 5-year intervals until 2030. Method. The number of Dutch TB cases infected by a Dutch source was estimated using a survival model. The number of non-Dutch patients was estimated by calculating the proportion of culture-positive TB patients among first-generation immigrants in 2005 and applying this proportion to the projected size of the non-Dutch population. It was assumed that each non-Dutch TB patient infected by a non-Dutch source would cause one infection in the population in the Netherlands. Results. The estimated number of TB cases is expected to decrease to 877 in 2010. Only a limited decrease in the number of TB patients is expected after 2010 as the number of non-Dutch TB cases increases due to increased immigration. This increase negates the expected decrease in Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source. In 2030, non-Dutch TB cases will account for 85% of all TB cases. The proportion of non-Dutch TB cases is greater in the 4 largest cities, i.e. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht (89%) than in the rest of the Netherlands (76%). Conclusion. The decrease in TB incidence observed over the past several years may cease by 2010 due to an increase in non-Dutch TB patients as a result of increased immigration. However, the confidence intervals associated with these estimates were large. Future TB control efforts must be organised in a flexible way so that they can be adapted to changing epidemiological situations.