Long-term trajectories of peak expiratory flow rate in older men and women show linear decline mainly determined by baseline levels

Background: Peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) predicts mortality and other negative health outcomes. However, little evidence exists on how PEFR changes with ageing and how trajectories of change differ among older people. Aims: To identify trajectories of PEFR in older men and women, and to study characteristics associated with these trajectories. Methods: Data from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam were used, an ongoing cohort study in a representative sample of Dutch older men and women. PEFR was assessed using the Mini-Wright peak flow meter across a 13-year follow-up in 991 men and 1107 women. Trajectories were analyzed using Latent Class Growth Analysis. Results: Mean age was 72.5 (SD 8.4) in men and 72.4 (SD 8.4) in women. In men, three declining trajectories were identified, i.e. high, intermediate and low, with prevalences of 30%, 46% and 24%, respectively. In women, two declining trajectories were identified, i.e. high and low, with prevalences of 62 and 38%. All trajectories showed linear decline and differed mostly with regard to their intercept. Significant differences between trajectories with regard to baseline demographic, health and lifestyle characteristics were observed, e.g., men and women in the low PEFR trajectory were older, had more chronic diseases, and were more often smoker. Discussion and conclusions: Trajectories in both men and women differ mainly in baseline level of PEFR and not in rate of decline over time. Therefore, one PEFR measurement might be sufficient to give an indication of the trajectory that an older adult is likely to follow.