Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling to Predict PET Image Quality of Three Generations EGFR TKI in Advanced-Stage NSCLC Patients

Introduction: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutated NSCLC is best treated using an EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). The presence and accessibility of EGFR overexpression and mutation in NSCLC can be determined using radiolabeled EGFR TKI PET/CT. However, recent research has shown a significant difference between image qualities (i.e., tumor-to-lung contrast) in three generation EGFR TKIs:11C-erlotinib,18F-afatinib and11C-osimertinib. In this research we aim to develop a physiological pharmacokinetic (PBPK)-model to predict tumor-to-lung contrast and as a secondary outcome the uptake of healthy tissue of the three tracers. Methods: Relevant physicochemical and drug specific properties (e.g., pKa, lipophilicity, target binding) for each TKI were collected and applied in established base PBPK models. Key hallmarks of NSCLC include: immune tumor deprivation, unaltered tumor perfusion and an acidic tumor environment. Model accuracy was demonstrated by calculating the prediction error (PE) between predicted tissue-to-blood ratios (TBR) and measured PET-image-derived TBR. Sensitivity analysis was performed by excluding each key component and comparing the PE with the final mechanistical PBPK model predictions. Results: The developed PBPK models were able to predict tumor-to-lung contrast for all EGFR-TKIs within threefold of observed PET image ratios (PE tumor-to-lung ratio of −90%, +44% and −6.3% for erlotinib, afatinib and osimertinib, respectively). Furthermore, the models depicted agreeable whole-body distribution, showing high tissue distribution for osimertinib and afatinib and low tissue distribution at high blood concentrations for erlotinib (mean PE, of −10.5%, range −158%–+190%, for all tissues). Conclusion: The developed PBPK models adequately predicted the image quality of afatinib and osimertinib and erlotinib. Some deviations in predicted whole-body TBR lead to new hypotheses, such as increased affinity for mutated EGFR and active influx transport (erlotinib into excreting tissues) or active efflux (afatinib from brain), which is currently unaccounted for. In the future, PBPK models may be used to predict the image quality of new tracers.