Quantifying AD-related brain amyloid with linearised progression models: model-based vs. data-based.

Background: Brain amyloid-β (Aβ) is the pathological hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD). In logistic disease models, Aβ accumulation is a sigmoid function of time-since-disease-onset (TSDO) (figure 1). Previous positron emission tomography (PET)-based models vary accumulation onset(t50) and duration(r) globally; capacity(K) and baseline(NS) regionally (Whittington2018). We confirm existing approaches and propose a more powerful ICA-based approach to quantify disease severity and estimate TSDO. Method: We used 1071 18F-florbetapir standard uptake value ratio (SUVR) images from the ADNI-2 study (adni.loni.usc.edu/data-samples/data-types/pet). Images were mapped into MNI space. Averages were extracted using the Harvard-Oxford brain-atlas. Whole-brain tracer-specific sigmoid parameters (Jack2013) obtained from the literature were used to estimate TSDO. Of 16 models of regional Aβ accumulation (each of the 4 regional sigmoid parameters varied either regionally or globally), the optimal Bayesian information criterion was found with global t50 and r, and regional NS and K (figure 1) with global values r=6.16y and t50=4.10y. Linearised maps of NS and K were obtained by regressing the SUVR maps onto the global sigmoid. We also estimated these maps as independent components, using a 2-component ICA on the SUVR maps. Both outcomes were used to quantify Aβ accumulation from SUVR images as weighting factors of the accumulation map. We compared the weights from the logistic model and the ICA model in ADNI, using effect size measured with Hedges' g between cognitively normal (CN), subjective memory complaints (SMC), mild cognitive impairment (EMCI/MCI/LMCI) and AD groups. We compared 3 longitudinal visits (N=112) in the OASIS-3 study (see www.oasis-brains.org) with both methods, global SUVR and Centiloid (Klunk2015) using 11C-PiB PET SUVR images. Result: Maps of accumulation capacity from both models had spatial correlation of 0.86 (figure 2); baseline maps had spatial correlation of 0.95. Hedges' g between ADNI groups was 2.25 for K, and 2.42 for ICA (1.46 for global SUVR). In OASIS-3, Hedges' g between visits was 1.24 for K, 1.46 for ICA (global SUVR 0.15, Centiloid 0.4). Conclusion: We demonstrate that linear accumulation models can be used to quantify brain Aβ with PET; maps obtained by ICA yield larger effect sizes than the logistic method for differentiating groups and measuring changes between visits.