Serum neurofilament as a predictor of 10-year grey matter atrophy and clinical disability in multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal study

Background: The predictive value of serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) on long-term prognosis in multiple sclerosis (MS) is still unclear. Objective: Investigate the relation between sNfL levels over a 2-year period in patients with relapsing-remitting MS, and clinical disability and grey matter (GM) atrophy after 10 years. Methods: 85 patients, originally enrolled in a multicentre, randomised trial of ω-3 fatty acids, participated in a 10-year follow-up visit. sNfL levels were measured by Simoa quarterly until month 12, and then at month 24. The appearance of new gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions was assessed monthly between baseline and month 9, and then at months 12 and 24. At the 10-year follow-up visit, brain atrophy measures were obtained using FreeSurfer. Results: Higher mean sNfL levels during early periods of active inflammation (Gd+ lesions present or recently present) predicted lower total (β=-0.399, p=0.040) and deep (β=-0.556, p=0.010) GM volume, lower mean cortical thickness (β=-0.581, p=0.010) and higher T2 lesion count (β=0.498, p=0.018). Of the clinical outcomes, higher inflammatory sNfL levels were associated with higher disability measured by the dominant hand Nine-Hole Peg Test (β=0.593, p=0.004). Mean sNfL levels during periods of remission (no Gd+ lesions present or recently present) did not predict GM atrophy or disability progression. Conclusion: Higher sNfL levels during periods of active inflammation predicted more GM atrophy and specific aspects of clinical disability 10 years later. The findings suggest that subsequent long-term GM atrophy is mainly due to neuroaxonal degradation within new lesions.