TY - JOUR
T1 - SOURCE beyond first-line
T2 - A survival prediction model for patients with metastatic esophagogastric adenocarcinoma after failure of first-line palliative systemic therapy
AU - Kuijper, Steven C.
AU - Pape, Marieke
AU - Haj Mohammad, Nadia
AU - van Voorthuizen, Theo
AU - Verhoeven, Rob H. A.
AU - van Laarhoven, Hanneke W. M.
N1 - Funding Information: Hanneke W. M. van Laarhoven has served as a consultant for BMS, Dragonfly, Eli Lilly, MSD, Nordic Pharma and Servier and as a speaker for Astellas and Novartis. She has received research funding and/or medication supply from Bayer, BMS, Celgene, Janssen, Incyte, Eli Lilly, MSD, Nordic Pharma, Philips, Roche, Servier. Rob H. A. Verhoeven reports grants from Roche, BMS and has served as consultant for Daiichi Sankyo. All funding was paid to the institution and was not related to the current study. Nadia Haj Mohammad has served as consultant for BMS, MSD, Astra Zenaca, Eli Lilly, Servier and has received funding from Servier. Steven C. Kuijper, Theo van Voorthuizen and Marieke Pape have no disclosures to declare. Funding Information: This work was supported by The Dutch Cancer Society, grant number UVA 2014‐7000. The funder had no role in the design and conduct of the study; analysis and interpretation of the data; and preparation of the manuscript. Funding Information: The authors thank the registration team of the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL) for the collection of data for the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The authors thank all participating hospitals in the Netherlands. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.
PY - 2023/3/15
Y1 - 2023/3/15
N2 - Prior models have been developed to predict survival for patients with esophagogastric cancer undergoing curative treatment or first-line chemotherapy (SOURCE models). Comprehensive clinical prediction models for patients with esophagogastric cancer who will receive second-line chemotherapy or best supportive care are currently lacking. The aim of our study was to develop and internally validate a new clinical prediction model, called SOURCE beyond first-line, for survival of patients with metastatic esophagogastric adenocarcinoma after failure of first-line palliative systemic therapy. Patients with unresectable or metastatic esophageal or gastric adenocarcinoma (2015-2017) who received first-line systemic therapy (N?=?1067) were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patient, tumor and treatment characteristics at primary diagnosis and at progression of disease were used to develop the model. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed through forward and backward selection using Akaike's Information Criterion. The model was internally validated through 10-fold cross-validations to assess performance. Model discrimination (C-index) and calibration (slope and intercept) were used to evaluate performance of the complete and cross-validated models. The final model consisted of 11 patient tumor and treatment characteristics. The C-index was 0.75 (0.73-0.78), calibration slope 1.01 (1.00-1.01) and calibration intercept 0.01 (0.01-0.02). Internal cross-validation of the model showed that the model performed adequately on unseen data: C-index was 0.79 (0.77-0.82), calibration slope 0.93 (0.85-1.01) and calibration intercept 0.02 (-0.01 to 0.06). The SOURCE beyond first-line model predicted survival with fair discriminatory ability and good calibration.
AB - Prior models have been developed to predict survival for patients with esophagogastric cancer undergoing curative treatment or first-line chemotherapy (SOURCE models). Comprehensive clinical prediction models for patients with esophagogastric cancer who will receive second-line chemotherapy or best supportive care are currently lacking. The aim of our study was to develop and internally validate a new clinical prediction model, called SOURCE beyond first-line, for survival of patients with metastatic esophagogastric adenocarcinoma after failure of first-line palliative systemic therapy. Patients with unresectable or metastatic esophageal or gastric adenocarcinoma (2015-2017) who received first-line systemic therapy (N?=?1067) were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patient, tumor and treatment characteristics at primary diagnosis and at progression of disease were used to develop the model. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed through forward and backward selection using Akaike's Information Criterion. The model was internally validated through 10-fold cross-validations to assess performance. Model discrimination (C-index) and calibration (slope and intercept) were used to evaluate performance of the complete and cross-validated models. The final model consisted of 11 patient tumor and treatment characteristics. The C-index was 0.75 (0.73-0.78), calibration slope 1.01 (1.00-1.01) and calibration intercept 0.01 (0.01-0.02). Internal cross-validation of the model showed that the model performed adequately on unseen data: C-index was 0.79 (0.77-0.82), calibration slope 0.93 (0.85-1.01) and calibration intercept 0.02 (-0.01 to 0.06). The SOURCE beyond first-line model predicted survival with fair discriminatory ability and good calibration.
KW - best supportive care
KW - esophageal cancer
KW - gastric cancer
KW - prediction model
KW - second-line
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146532112&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.34385
DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.34385
M3 - Article
C2 - 36451334
SN - 0020-7136
VL - 152
SP - 1202
EP - 1209
JO - International journal of cancer
JF - International journal of cancer
IS - 6
ER -