TY - JOUR
T1 - The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts
AU - Abu Hussein, Nebal
AU - ter Riet, Gerben
AU - Schoenenberger, Lucia
AU - Bridevaux, Pierre-Olivier
AU - Chhajed, Prashant N.
AU - Fitting, Jean-William
AU - Geiser, Thomas
AU - Jochmann, Anja
AU - Joos Zellweger, Ladina
AU - Kohler, Malcolm
AU - Maier, Sabrina
AU - Miedinger, David
AU - Schafroth Török, Salome
AU - Scherr, Andreas
AU - Siebeling, Lara
AU - Thurnheer, Robert
AU - Tamm, Michael
AU - Puhan, Milo A.
AU - Leuppi, Joerg Daniel
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings
AB - Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1159/000363770
DO - https://doi.org/10.1159/000363770
M3 - Article
C2 - 25115178
SN - 0025-7931
VL - 88
SP - 208
EP - 214
JO - Respiration; international review of thoracic diseases
JF - Respiration; international review of thoracic diseases
IS - 3
ER -