Baseline Severity as a Moderator of the Waiting List-Controlled Association of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy With Symptom Change in Social Anxiety Disorder: A Systematic Review and Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Importance: Social anxiety disorder (SAD) can be adequately treated with cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). However, there is a large gap in knowledge on factors associated with prognosis, and it is unclear whether symptom severity predicts response to CBT for SAD. Objective: To examine baseline SAD symptom severity as a moderator of the association between CBT and symptom change in patients with SAD. Data Sources: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA), PubMed, PsycInfo, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched from January 1, 1990, to January 13, 2023. Primary search topics were social anxiety disorder, cognitive behavior therapy, and randomized controlled trial. Study Selection: Inclusion criteria were randomized clinical trials comparing CBT with being on a waiting list and using the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (LSAS) in adults with a primary clinical diagnosis of SAD. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Authors of included studies were approached to provide individual-level data. Data were extracted by pairs of authors following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses reporting guideline, and risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane tool. An IPDMA was conducted using a 2-stage approach for the association of CBT with change in LSAS scores from baseline to posttreatment and for the interaction effect of baseline LSAS score by condition using random-effects models. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the baseline to posttreatment change in symptom severity measured by the LSAS. Results: A total of 12 studies including 1246 patients with SAD (mean [SD] age, 35.3 [10.9] years; 738 [59.2%] female) were included in the meta-analysis. A waiting list-controlled association between CBT and pretreatment to posttreatment LSAS change was found (b = -20.3; 95% CI, -24.9 to -15.6; P <.001; Cohen d = -0.95; 95% CI, -1.16 to -0.73). Baseline LSAS scores moderated the differences between CBT and waiting list with respect to pretreatment to posttreatment symptom reductions (b = -0.22; 95% CI, -0.39 to -0.06; P =.009), indicating that individuals with severe symptoms had larger waiting list-controlled symptom reductions after CBT (Cohen d = -1.13 [95% CI, -1.39 to -0.88] for patients with very severe SAD; Cohen d = -0.54 [95% CI, -0.80 to -0.29] for patients with mild SAD). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review and IPDMA, higher baseline SAD symptom severity was associated with greater (absolute but not relative) symptom reductions after CBT in patients with SAD. The findings contribute to personalized care by suggesting that clinicians can confidently offer CBT to individuals with severe SAD symptoms..