Breast-conserving treatment or mastectomy in early breast cancer: a clinical decision analysis with special reference to the risk of local recurrence

A clinical decision analysis was performed to judge the impact of local recurrences after breast-conserving treatment (BCT) on the (quality-adjusted) life expectancy of breast cancer patients. A life-long follow-up of two patient groups, one of which had undergone mastectomy and one BCT, was simulated by a Markov model of medical prognosis. Data used in the model originated from the literature. Since results in the source papers were not split according to stage, we performed two analyses: one with data from all source studies (T1 and T2) and one with data from source studies, concerning only T1 patients. In both analyses, the conclusion was that BCT yields better quality-adjusted life expectancy than mastectomy. Sensitivity analysis, however, identified subgroups of patients who should preferably undergo mastectomy. These subgroups are: patients preferring mastectomy to BCT, patients with a high risk of local recurrence, young patients and patients at high age, if they also have a high local recurrence risk. For these groups, patient preferences should play a major role in recommending treatment