TY - JOUR
T1 - Employment trends at older ages
T2 - policy impact or secular change?
AU - Deeg, Dorly J. H.
AU - Blekesaune, Morten
AU - de Wind, Astrid
N1 - Funding Information: The Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam is supported by a grant from the Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport, Directorate of Long-Term Care, and the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) in the framework of the project “New Cohorts of young old in the twenty-first century” (file number 480–10-014). The NorLAG and LOGG surveys are financed by the Research Council of Norway (grant no. 149564 and 168373), Ministry of Health and Care Services, Ministry of Labour, Ministry of Children, Equality and Social Inclusion, Ministry of Local Government and Regional Development, Norwegian Social Research (NOVA) and Statistics Norway. This study was supported by a grant from the Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement (grant no. CRG2020.01). Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Observed increases in retirement age are generally attributed to policies to extend working lives (PEW). In a quasi-experimental design, we examine to what extent increases in employment of older workers can be attributed to secular changes in individual characteristics as opposed to PEW. We compare two countries: one with clear PEW (the Netherlands) and one without PEW (Norway). Data come from the Dutch Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam and the NORwegian Longitudinal study on Aging and Generations. From each study, two same-age (55–64 years) samples are selected, one recruited in 2002–03, and one recruited after five (Norway) and ten years (Netherlands). In pooled regression analysis, paid work is the outcome variable, and time of measurement, the main independent variable. Individual characteristics include age, sex, educational level, self-perceived health, functional limitations, sense of mastery, and work status of partner. Employment rose in both countries, faster in the Netherlands than in Norway. Of the rise in employment, individual characteristics explained less in the Netherlands than in Norway. Accounting for these, the interaction country*time was significant, indicating an extra rise in employment of 5.2 and 7.5% points for Dutch men and women, net of individual characteristics and unobserved factors that are assumed to be similar in both countries. The extra rise in the Netherlands represents 57% of the total rise for both sexes. Thus, secular change in individual characteristics explains part of the rise in employment in both countries. In the Netherlands, other factors such as PEW may additionally explain the rise in employment.
AB - Observed increases in retirement age are generally attributed to policies to extend working lives (PEW). In a quasi-experimental design, we examine to what extent increases in employment of older workers can be attributed to secular changes in individual characteristics as opposed to PEW. We compare two countries: one with clear PEW (the Netherlands) and one without PEW (Norway). Data come from the Dutch Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam and the NORwegian Longitudinal study on Aging and Generations. From each study, two same-age (55–64 years) samples are selected, one recruited in 2002–03, and one recruited after five (Norway) and ten years (Netherlands). In pooled regression analysis, paid work is the outcome variable, and time of measurement, the main independent variable. Individual characteristics include age, sex, educational level, self-perceived health, functional limitations, sense of mastery, and work status of partner. Employment rose in both countries, faster in the Netherlands than in Norway. Of the rise in employment, individual characteristics explained less in the Netherlands than in Norway. Accounting for these, the interaction country*time was significant, indicating an extra rise in employment of 5.2 and 7.5% points for Dutch men and women, net of individual characteristics and unobserved factors that are assumed to be similar in both countries. The extra rise in the Netherlands represents 57% of the total rise for both sexes. Thus, secular change in individual characteristics explains part of the rise in employment in both countries. In the Netherlands, other factors such as PEW may additionally explain the rise in employment.
KW - Netherlands
KW - Norway
KW - Older workers
KW - Policies
KW - Trends
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85121645249&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10433-021-00664-0
DO - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10433-021-00664-0
M3 - Article
C2 - 36052188
SN - 1613-9372
JO - European Journal of Ageing
JF - European Journal of Ageing
ER -