TY - JOUR
T1 - Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019
T2 - a systematic analysis
AU - Martinez, Leonardo
AU - Warren, Joshua L.
AU - Harries, Anthony D.
AU - Croda, Julio
AU - Espinal, Marcos A.
AU - Olarte, Rafael A. L. pez
AU - Avedillo, Pedro
AU - Lienhardt, Christian
AU - Bhatia, Vineet
AU - Liu, Qiao
AU - Chakaya, Jeremiah
AU - Denholm, Justin T.
AU - Lin, Yan
AU - Kawatsu, Lisa
AU - Zhu, Limei
AU - Horsburgh, C. Robert
AU - Cohen, Ted
AU - Andrews, Jason R.
N1 - Funding Information: This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers 5K01AI156022, 5R01AI130058, R01AI149620, and R01AI137093). We thank programme officers, health-care workers, and ministry of health officials from various countries who shared key tuberculosis notification data among incarcerated individuals. We also thank The International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease for officially sponsoring this project and the Pan American Health Organization, WHO South-East Asian Regional Office, WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control Office, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and the United Nations Office High Commissioner for Human Rights for assisting in contacting important stakeholders and officials from several countries. Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Funding Information: This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers 5K01AI156022, 5R01AI130058, R01AI149620, and R01AI137093). We thank programme officers, health-care workers, and ministry of health officials from various countries who shared key tuberculosis notification data among incarcerated individuals. We also thank The International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease for officially sponsoring this project and the Pan American Health Organization, WHO South-East Asian Regional Office, WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control Office, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and the United Nations Office High Commissioner for Human Rights for assisting in contacting important stakeholders and officials from several countries. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 World Health Organization; All rights reserved
PY - 2023/7/1
Y1 - 2023/7/1
N2 - Background: People who are incarcerated are at high risk of developing tuberculosis. We aimed to estimate the annual global, regional, and national incidence of tuberculosis among incarcerated populations from 2000 to 2019. Methods: We collected and aggregated data for tuberculosis incidence and prevalence estimates among incarcerated individuals in published and unpublished literature, annual tuberculosis notifications among incarcerated individuals at the country level, and the annual number of incarcerated individuals at the country level. We developed a joint hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression framework to simultaneously model tuberculosis incidence, notifications, and prevalence from 2000 to 2019. Using this model, we estimated trends in absolute tuberculosis incidence and notifications, the incidence and notification rates, and the case detection ratio by year, country, region, and globally. Findings: In 2019, we estimated a total of 125 105 (95% credible interval [CrI] 93 736–165 318) incident tuberculosis cases among incarcerated individuals globally. The estimated incidence rate per 100 000 person-years overall was 1148 (95% CrI 860–1517) but varied greatly by WHO region, from 793 (95% CrI 430–1342) in the Eastern Mediterranean region to 2242 (1515–3216) in the African region. Global incidence per 100 000 person-years between 2000 and 2012 among incarcerated individuals decreased from 1884 (95% CrI 1394–2616) to 1205 (910–1615); however, from 2013 onwards, tuberculosis incidence per 100 000 person-years was stable, from 1183 (95% CrI 876–1596) in 2013 to 1148 (860–1517) in 2019. In 2019, the global case detection ratio was estimated to be 53% (95% CrI 42–64), the lowest over the study period. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest a high tuberculosis incidence rate among incarcerated individuals globally with large gaps in tuberculosis case detection. Tuberculosis in incarcerated populations must be addressed with interventions specifically tailored to improve diagnoses and prevent transmission as a part of the broader global tuberculosis control effort. Funding: National Institutes of Health.
AB - Background: People who are incarcerated are at high risk of developing tuberculosis. We aimed to estimate the annual global, regional, and national incidence of tuberculosis among incarcerated populations from 2000 to 2019. Methods: We collected and aggregated data for tuberculosis incidence and prevalence estimates among incarcerated individuals in published and unpublished literature, annual tuberculosis notifications among incarcerated individuals at the country level, and the annual number of incarcerated individuals at the country level. We developed a joint hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression framework to simultaneously model tuberculosis incidence, notifications, and prevalence from 2000 to 2019. Using this model, we estimated trends in absolute tuberculosis incidence and notifications, the incidence and notification rates, and the case detection ratio by year, country, region, and globally. Findings: In 2019, we estimated a total of 125 105 (95% credible interval [CrI] 93 736–165 318) incident tuberculosis cases among incarcerated individuals globally. The estimated incidence rate per 100 000 person-years overall was 1148 (95% CrI 860–1517) but varied greatly by WHO region, from 793 (95% CrI 430–1342) in the Eastern Mediterranean region to 2242 (1515–3216) in the African region. Global incidence per 100 000 person-years between 2000 and 2012 among incarcerated individuals decreased from 1884 (95% CrI 1394–2616) to 1205 (910–1615); however, from 2013 onwards, tuberculosis incidence per 100 000 person-years was stable, from 1183 (95% CrI 876–1596) in 2013 to 1148 (860–1517) in 2019. In 2019, the global case detection ratio was estimated to be 53% (95% CrI 42–64), the lowest over the study period. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest a high tuberculosis incidence rate among incarcerated individuals globally with large gaps in tuberculosis case detection. Tuberculosis in incarcerated populations must be addressed with interventions specifically tailored to improve diagnoses and prevent transmission as a part of the broader global tuberculosis control effort. Funding: National Institutes of Health.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85164230819&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00097-X
DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00097-X
M3 - Article
C2 - 37393090
SN - 2468-2667
VL - 8
SP - e511-e519
JO - The Lancet. Public health
JF - The Lancet. Public health
IS - 7
ER -