N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide levels predict newly detected atrial fibrillation in a population-based cohort

Background. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is secreted from cardiomyocytes and may reflect haemodynamic abnormalities predisposing to atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to investigate whether N-terminal pro BNP (NT-proBNP) is associated with newly detected AF in subjects obtained from the general population. Methods. From the PREVEND programme (n=8592), we selected all subjects with an available baseline and four-year electrocardiogram and NT-proBNP levels at baseline. We excluded subjects with AF at baseline and subjects with a serum creatinine >2.0 mg/dl. Results. In total, 6494 subjects were eligible for the prospective analysis (aged 49±12 years, 49.7% men). At four years, AF was detected in 41 (0.6%) subjects. Median NT-proBNP levels at baseline in subjects with newly detected AF after four years was 62.2 (22.6 to 208.5) pg/ml as compared with 35.7 (15.9 to 68.7) pg/ml in those with sinus rhythm (p=0.001). Each 1 standard deviation increment in natural log transformed NT-proBNP was associated with a 54% (5% to 126%, p=0.028) increase in risk for AF after adjustment for other risk factors predisposing to AF. NT-proBNP levels above the sex-specific 80th percentile (97 pg/ml in women and 60 pg/ml in men) were associated with a multivariate odds ratio of 2.65 (1.22 to 5.76, p=0.01) for the occurrence of AF. Conclusion. Plasma levels of NT-proBNP predict newly detected AF in subjects obtained from the general population independent of cardiovascular risk factors predisposing to AF.