TY - JOUR
T1 - Not a crystal ball
T2 - Mapping opportunities and threats for the future demand of red blood cells in the Netherlands using a scenario approach
AU - Langi Sasongko, Praiseldy
AU - van den Hurk, Katja
AU - van Kraaij, Marian
AU - Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A.
AU - Marchau, Vincent A.W.J.
AU - Janssen, Mart P.
N1 - Funding Information: The authors thank all experts who participated in this research, particularly those who were active in multiple steps of the project. This work was supported by Sanquin internal research grant PPOC‐L2245. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 AABB
PY - 2021/8
Y1 - 2021/8
N2 - Background: As Western blood transfusion practices are changing, there is interest and need in anticipating the future demand of blood products and how a blood establishment can actively prepare for various long-term developments. This article provides an overview of how a scenario approach was used to prioritize key categories of drivers for the future demand of red blood cells and the organizational implications thereof for Sanquin, the Dutch national blood establishment. Study Design and Methods: Based on previously identified drivers from interviews and a literature review (Step 1), we conducted scenario sessions and a survey to rank a list of drivers (“themes”) with its related opportunities and threats (Step 2), to identify mitigating measures per theme through focus groups (Step 3). Results: In Step 2, 10 themes were found that were classified in terms of importance and uncertainty. These were plotted on a two-dimensional graph with an ellipse to indicate the interquartile ranges per theme. Experts rated the top three most important themes to be the blood supply organization, precision medicine, and red blood cell replacements. In Step 3, focus groups identified specific mitigating measures per theme. These measures had parallel ideas, such as the need for an innovative mentality, internal and external communication and collaboration, and building Sanquin's reputation and trust with the public. Conclusion: Having identified the most important themes with suggestions for mitigating measures, Sanquin can take steps to become adaptive and proactive. Other blood establishments may also use a scenario approach to create contextualized long-term strategies.
AB - Background: As Western blood transfusion practices are changing, there is interest and need in anticipating the future demand of blood products and how a blood establishment can actively prepare for various long-term developments. This article provides an overview of how a scenario approach was used to prioritize key categories of drivers for the future demand of red blood cells and the organizational implications thereof for Sanquin, the Dutch national blood establishment. Study Design and Methods: Based on previously identified drivers from interviews and a literature review (Step 1), we conducted scenario sessions and a survey to rank a list of drivers (“themes”) with its related opportunities and threats (Step 2), to identify mitigating measures per theme through focus groups (Step 3). Results: In Step 2, 10 themes were found that were classified in terms of importance and uncertainty. These were plotted on a two-dimensional graph with an ellipse to indicate the interquartile ranges per theme. Experts rated the top three most important themes to be the blood supply organization, precision medicine, and red blood cell replacements. In Step 3, focus groups identified specific mitigating measures per theme. These measures had parallel ideas, such as the need for an innovative mentality, internal and external communication and collaboration, and building Sanquin's reputation and trust with the public. Conclusion: Having identified the most important themes with suggestions for mitigating measures, Sanquin can take steps to become adaptive and proactive. Other blood establishments may also use a scenario approach to create contextualized long-term strategies.
KW - blood bank organization
KW - future red blood cell demand
KW - red blood cells
KW - scenario approach
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85107005800&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/trf.16532
DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/trf.16532
M3 - Article
C2 - 34058022
SN - 0041-1132
VL - 61
SP - 2356
EP - 2367
JO - Transfusion
JF - Transfusion
IS - 8
ER -