TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting major adverse cardiovascular events for secondary prevention
T2 - protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk prediction models
AU - Akyea, Ralph K
AU - Leonardi-Bee, Jo
AU - Asselbergs, Folkert W
AU - Patel, Riyaz S
AU - Durrington, Paul
AU - Wierzbicki, Anthony S
AU - Ibiwoye, Oluwaseun H
AU - Kai, Joe
AU - Qureshi, Nadeem
AU - Weng, Stephen F
N1 - © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
PY - 2020/7/27
Y1 - 2020/7/27
N2 - INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. With advances in early diagnosis and treatment of CVD and increasing life expectancy, more people are surviving initial CVD events. However, models for stratifying disease severity risk in patients with established CVD for effective secondary prevention strategies are inadequate. Multivariable prognostic models to stratify CVD risk may allow personalised treatment interventions. This review aims to systematically review the existing multivariable prognostic models for the recurrence of CVD or major adverse cardiovascular events in adults with established CVD diagnosis.METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Bibliographic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Web of Science) will be searched, from database inception to April 2020, using terms relating to the clinical area and prognosis. A hand search of the reference lists of included studies will also be done to identify additional published studies. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Eligible studies present multivariable models (derived or validated) of adults (aged 16 years and over) with an established diagnosis of CVD, reporting at least one of the components of the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (defined as either coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, heart failure or CVD-related mortality). Reviewing will be done by two reviewers independently using the pre-defined criteria. Data will be extracted for included full-text articles. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Prognostic models will be summarised narratively. If a model is tested in multiple validation studies, the predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required. The results of this study will be submitted to relevant conferences for presentation and a peer-reviewed journal for publication.PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019149111.
AB - INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. With advances in early diagnosis and treatment of CVD and increasing life expectancy, more people are surviving initial CVD events. However, models for stratifying disease severity risk in patients with established CVD for effective secondary prevention strategies are inadequate. Multivariable prognostic models to stratify CVD risk may allow personalised treatment interventions. This review aims to systematically review the existing multivariable prognostic models for the recurrence of CVD or major adverse cardiovascular events in adults with established CVD diagnosis.METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Bibliographic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Web of Science) will be searched, from database inception to April 2020, using terms relating to the clinical area and prognosis. A hand search of the reference lists of included studies will also be done to identify additional published studies. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Eligible studies present multivariable models (derived or validated) of adults (aged 16 years and over) with an established diagnosis of CVD, reporting at least one of the components of the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (defined as either coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, heart failure or CVD-related mortality). Reviewing will be done by two reviewers independently using the pre-defined criteria. Data will be extracted for included full-text articles. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Prognostic models will be summarised narratively. If a model is tested in multiple validation studies, the predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required. The results of this study will be submitted to relevant conferences for presentation and a peer-reviewed journal for publication.PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019149111.
KW - Adolescent
KW - Adult
KW - Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control
KW - Heart Failure
KW - Humans
KW - Meta-Analysis as Topic
KW - Neoplasm Recurrence, Local
KW - Review Literature as Topic
KW - Risk Assessment
KW - Stroke/prevention & control
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-034564
DO - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-034564
M3 - Article
C2 - 32718921
SN - 2044-6055
VL - 10
SP - e034564
JO - BMJ Open
JF - BMJ Open
IS - 7
ER -