Prognostic factors associated with failure to return to sport following primary arthroscopic Bankart repair: a retrospective multicenter study

Background: Even though many studies have been published regarding return-to-sport (RTS) rates following arthroscopic Bankart repair (ABR), evidence regarding prognostic factors for which patients do not RTS is limited. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors that are associated with failure to RTS and failure to return to preinjury level of sport (RTPS) following primary ABR. The hypothesis was that prognostic factors for failure to RTS and failure to RTPS would be similar to those predisposing recurrence. Methods: A multicenter, retrospective case-control study including 6 Dutch hospitals was performed. Consecutive patients who underwent primary ABR between 2014 and 2019 were invited to participate and received a questionnaire. Sports participation was assessed before symptom onset, at 6 months postoperatively, and at final follow-up. Failure to RTS was defined as no return to any sport, and failure to RTPS was defined as no return to the same level (or a higher level) of sport. Prognostic factors for failure to RTS or failure to RTPS were identified using logistic regression. Covariates for the regression analysis were selected based on univariate analyses. Results: This study included 318 patients with a mean follow-up period of 4.2 years (standard deviation, 1.8 years). Of these 318 patients, 26 (8.2%) did not RTS and 100 (31%) did not RTPS. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that glenoid bone loss (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.15; P = .001) and overhead use of the shoulder during work (OR, 3.77; 95% CI, 1.45-9.85; P = .007) were prognostic factors for failure to RTS. In addition, it showed that preoperative professional sports level (OR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.07-8.05; P = .04) and preoperative body mass index (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.21; P = .04) were prognostic factors for failure to RTPS. Repair of a bony Bankart lesion (OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.15-0.81; P = .02) and the presence of an anterior labral periosteal sleeve avulsion (ALPSA) (OR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.20-0.97; P = .04) were identified as factors that facilitated RTPS. Conclusion: This study identified glenoid bone loss and overhead use of the shoulder during work to be associated with failure to RTS. Moreover, preoperative sports level and preoperative body mass index were found to be associated with failure to RTPS. In contrast, a bony Bankart lesion and an anterior labral periosteal sleeve avulsion (ALPSA) lesion facilitated RTPS. Future prospective studies are needed to confirm these factors and determine which part of the effect can be attributed to (failure of) surgical treatment or changes in behavior.