Quantification of tissue property and perfusion uncertainties in hyperthermia treatment planning: Multianalysis using polynomial chaos expansion

Introduction: Hyperthermia treatment planning (HTP) tools can guide treatment delivery, particularly with locoregional radiative phased array systems. Uncertainties in tissue and perfusion property values presently lead to quantitative inaccuracy of HTP, leading to sub-optimal treatment. Assessment of these uncertainties would allow for better judgement of the reliability of treatment plans and improve their value for treatment guidance. However, systematically investigating the impact of all uncertainties on treatment plans is a complex, high-dimensional problem and too computationally expensive for traditional Monte Carlo approaches. This study aims to systematically quantify the treatment-plan impact of tissue property uncertainties by investigating their individual contribution to, and combined impact on predicted temperature distributions. Methods: A novel Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE)-based HTP uncertainty quantification was developed and applied for locoregional hyperthermia of modelled tumours in the pancreatic head, prostate, rectum, and cervix. Patient models were based on the Duke and Ella digital human models. Using Plan2Heat, treatment plans were created to optimise tumour temperature (represented by T90) for treatment using the Alba4D system. For all 25–34 modelled tissues, the impact of tissue property uncertainties was analysed individually i.e., electrical and thermal conductivity, permittivity, density, specific heat capacity and perfusion. Next, combined analyses were performed on the top 30 uncertainties with the largest impact. Results: Uncertainties in thermal conductivity and heat capacity were found to have negligible impact on the predicted temperature ( < 1 × 10⁻¹⁰ °C), density and permittivity uncertainties had a small impact (< 0.3 °C). Uncertainties in electrical conductivity and perfusion can lead to large variations in predicted temperature. However, variations in muscle properties result in the largest impact at locations that could limit treatment quality, with a standard deviation up to almost 6 °C (pancreas) and 3.5 °C (prostate) for perfusion and electrical conductivity, respectively. The combined influence of all significant uncertainties leads to large variations with a standard deviation up to 9.0, 3.6, 3.7 and 4.1 °C for the pancreatic, prostate, rectal and cervical cases, respectively. Conclusion: Uncertainties in tissue and perfusion property values can have a large impact on predicted temperatures from hyperthermia treatment planning. PCE-based analysis helps to identify all major uncertainties, their impact and judge the reliability of treatment plans.