TY - JOUR
T1 - SOURCE
T2 - A Registry-Based Prediction Model for Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Oesophageal or Gastric Cancer
AU - van den Boorn, Héctor G
AU - Abu-Hanna, Ameen
AU - Ter Veer, Emil
AU - van Kleef, Jessy Joy
AU - Lordick, Florian
AU - Stahl, Michael
AU - Ajani, Jaffer A
AU - Guimbaud, Rosine
AU - Park, Se Hoon
AU - Dutton, Susan J
AU - Bang, Yung-Jue
AU - Boku, Narikazu
AU - Mohammad, Nadia Haj
AU - Sprangers, Mirjam A G
AU - Verhoeven, Rob H A
AU - Zwinderman, Aeilko H
AU - van Oijen, Martijn G H
AU - van Laarhoven, Hanneke W M
PY - 2019/2/5
Y1 - 2019/2/5
N2 - Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal (n = 8010) or gastric (n = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005⁻2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making.
AB - Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal (n = 8010) or gastric (n = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005⁻2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85062421920&origin=inward
U2 - https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers11020187
DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers11020187
M3 - Article
C2 - 30764578
SN - 2072-6694
VL - 11
SP - E187
JO - Cancers
JF - Cancers
IS - 2
M1 - 187
ER -