Surgeons’ assessment versus risk models for predicting complications of hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery (HPB-RISC): a multicenter prospective cohort study

Background: Several studies advise the use of risk models when counseling patients for hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery, but studies comparing these models to the surgeons’ assessment are lacking. The aim of this study was to assess whether risk prediction models outperform surgeons’ assessment for the risk of complications in HPB surgery. Methods: This prospective study included adult patients scheduled for HPB surgery in three centers in the UK and the Netherlands. Primary outcome was the rate of postoperative major complications. Surgeons assessed the risk prior to surgery while blinded for the formal risk scores. Risk prediction models were retrieved via a systematic review and risk scores were calculated. For each model, discrimination and calibration were evaluated. Results: Overall, 349 patients were included. The rate of major complications was 27% and in-hospital mortality 3%. Surgeons’ assessment resulted in an AUC of 0.64; 0.71 for liver and 0.56 for pancreas surgery (P = 0.020). The AUCs for nine existing risk prediction models ranged between 0.57 and 0.73 for liver surgery and between 0.51 and 0.57 for pancreas surgery. Conclusion: In HPB surgery, existing risk prediction models do not outperform surgeons’ assessment. Surgeons’ assessment outperforms most risk prediction models for liver surgery although both have a poor predictive performance for pancreas surgery. Registration information: REC reference number (13/SC/0135); IRAS ID (119370). Trialregister.nl: NTR4649.