TY - JOUR
T1 - The geographic variation of surveillance and zoonotic spillover potential of influenza viruses in domestic poultry and swine
AU - Berger, Kathryn A.
AU - Pigott, David M.
AU - Tomlinson, Francesca
AU - Godding, David
AU - Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian
AU - Taye, Biruhalem
AU - Sirota, Fernanda L.
AU - Han, Alvin
AU - Lee, Raphael T. C.
AU - Gunalan, Vithiagaran
AU - Eisenhaber, Frank
AU - Hay, Simon I.
AU - Russell, Colin A.
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Background: Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts. Methods: We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359 105 reports of surveillance activities. Results: Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively. Conclusions: Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.
AB - Background: Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts. Methods: We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359 105 reports of surveillance activities. Results: Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively. Conclusions: Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85068032259&origin=inward
UR - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30619908
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofy318
DO - https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofy318
M3 - Article
C2 - 30619908
SN - 2328-8957
VL - 5
JO - Open forum infectious diseases
JF - Open forum infectious diseases
IS - 12
ER -