The predictive capacity of psychiatric and psychological polygenic risk scores for distinguishing cases in a child and adolescent psychiatric sample from controls

BACKGROUND: Psychiatric traits are heritable, highly comorbid and genetically correlated, suggesting that genetic effects that are shared across disorders are at play. The aim of the present study is to quantify the predictive capacity of common genetic variation of a variety of traits, as captured by their PRS, to predict case-control status in a child and adolescent psychiatric sample including controls to reveal which traits contribute to the shared genetic risk across disorders.

METHOD: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 14 traits were used as predictor phenotypes to predict case-control status in a clinical sample. Clinical cases (N = 1,402), age 1-21, diagnostic categories: Autism spectrum disorders (N = 492), Attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorders (N = 471), Anxiety (N = 293), disruptive behaviors (N = 101), eating disorders (N = 97), OCD (N = 43), Tic disorder (N = 50), Disorder of infancy, childhood or adolescence NOS (N = 65), depression (N = 64), motor, learning and communication disorders (N = 59), Anorexia Nervosa (N = 48), somatoform disorders (N = 47), Trauma/stress (N = 39) and controls (N = 1,448, age 17-84) of European ancestry. First, these 14 PRS were tested in univariate regression analyses. The traits that significantly predicted case-control status were included in a multivariable regression model to investigate the gain in explained variance when leveraging the genetic effects of multiple traits simultaneously.

RESULTS: In the univariate analyses, we observed significant associations between clinical status and the PRS of educational attainment (EA), smoking initiation (SI), intelligence, neuroticism, alcohol dependence, ADHD, major depression and anti-social behavior. EA (p-value: 3.53E-20, explained variance: 3.99%, OR: 0.66), and SI (p-value: 4.77E-10, explained variance: 1.91%, OR: 1.33) were the most predictive traits. In the multivariable analysis with these eight significant traits, EA and SI, remained significant predictors. The explained variance of the PRS in the model with these eight traits combined was 5.9%.

CONCLUSION: Our study provides more insights into the genetic signal that is shared between childhood and adolescent psychiatric disorders. As such, our findings might guide future studies on psychiatric comorbidity and offer insights into shared etiology between psychiatric disorders. The increase in explained variance when leveraging the genetic signal of different predictor traits supports a multivariable approach to optimize precision accuracy for general psychopathology.