Trends and forecasts of hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND: The incidence and prevalence of acute and chronic pancreatitis have increased in Western countries. It is likely, the number of hospital admissions has increased correspondingly. AIMS: To analyze the trends in hospital admissions in the Netherlands for acute and chronic pancreatitis from 1992 to 2004 and to forecast the number of admissions up to 2010. METHODS: Analysis of hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis accumulated in a nationwide database. Curve fitting regression models were used to explore future trends. RESULTS: The number of acute pancreatitis admissions rose in 1992-2004 from 1,785 to 3,120 (74.8% increase). The overall 'annual number' of acute pancreatitis admissions increased from 11.8 to 19.2 per 100,000 person-years. The linear regression model predicted 3,205 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 3,111-3,299] and 3,537 (95% CI, 3,429-3,645) admissions for 2007 and 2010, respectively, a further increase of at least 9.9% in 2010 compared with 2004. In the 12-year time period, chronic pancreatitis admissions showed an increase of 75.4% (from 790 to 1,386). The overall 'annual number' of chronic pancreatitis admissions increased from 5.2 to 8.5 per 100,000 person-years. The cubic regression model predicted 1868 (95% CI, 1,619-2,117) and 3,173 (95% CI, 2,456-3,890) admissions for 2007 and 2010, respectively, an additional increase of 77.2% in 2010 compared with 2004. CONCLUSION: Hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis have increased substantially from 1992-2004. This trend will most likely continue for the near future and the burden and costs to the Dutch health care system will increase accordingly