Predicting sojourn times across dementia disease stages, institutionalization, and mortality

Ashley E. Tate, Vincent Bouteloup, Ingrid S. van Maurik, Delphine Jean, Arenda Mank, Andreja Speh, Valerie Boilet, Argonde van Harten, Maria Eriksdotter, Anders Wimo, Carole Dufouil, Wiesje M. van der Flier, Linus Jönsson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Inferring the timeline from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to severe dementia is pivotal for patients, clinicians, and researchers. Literature is sparse and often contains few patients. We aim to determine the time spent in MCI, mild-, moderate-, severe dementia, and institutionalization until death. METHODS: Multistate modeling with Cox regression was used to obtain the sojourn time. Covariates were age at baseline, sex, amyloid status, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) or other dementia diagnosis. The sample included a register (SveDem) and memory clinics (Amsterdam Dementia Cohort and Memento). RESULTS: Using 80,543 patients, the sojourn time from clinically identified MCI to death across all patient groups ranged from 6.20 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.57–6.98) to 10.08 (8.94–12.18) years. DISCUSSION: Generally, sojourn time was inversely associated with older age at baseline, males, and AD diagnosis. The results provide key estimates for researchers and clinicians to estimate prognosis.
Original languageEnglish
JournalAlzheimer's and Dementia
Early online date2023
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 2023

Keywords

  • Alzheimer's disease
  • dementia
  • epidemiology
  • institutionalization
  • mortality
  • multi-state modeling
  • multistate modeling
  • sojourn times

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