Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of cases of tuberculosis (TB) in 2030 for the purpose of planning future TB control.
DESIGN: Statistical modelling in 5-year intervals until 2030.
METHOD: The number of Dutch TB cases infected by a Dutch source was estimated using a survival model. The number ofnon-Dutch patients was estimated by calculating the proportion of culture-positive TB patients among first-generation immigrants in 2005 and applying this proportion to the projected size of the non-Dutch population. It was assumed that each non-Dutch TB patient infected by a non-Dutch source would cause one infection in the population in The Netherlands.
RESULTS: The estimated number of TB cases is expected to decrease to 877 in 2010. Only a limited decrease in the number of TB patients is expected after 2010 as the number of non-Dutch TB cases increases due to increased immigration. This increase negates the expected decrease in Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source. In 2030, non-Dutch TB cases will account for 85% of all TB cases. The proportion of non-Dutch TB cases is greater in the 4 largest cities, i.e. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht (89%) than in the rest of The Netherlands (76%).
CONCLUSION: The decrease in TB incidence observed over the past several years may cease by 2010 due to an increase in non-Dutch TB patients as a result of increased immigration. However, the confidence intervals associated with these estimates were large. Future TB control efforts must be organised in a flexible way so that they can be adapted to changing epidemiological situations.
Translated title of the contribution | Estimation of the incidence of tuberculosis in The Netherlands in 2030 |
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Original language | Dutch |
Pages (from-to) | 616-21 |
Number of pages | 6 |
Journal | Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde |
Volume | 152 |
Issue number | 11 |
Publication status | Published - 15 Mar 2008 |
Keywords
- Emigration and Immigration/statistics & numerical data
- Female
- Forecasting
- Humans
- Incidence
- Male
- Models, Statistical
- Netherlands/epidemiology
- Prevalence
- Risk Factors
- Tuberculosis/epidemiology