TY - JOUR
T1 - The netherlands is on track to meet the world health organization hepatitis C elimination targets by 2030
AU - van Dijk, Marleen
AU - Brakenhoff, Sylvia M.
AU - Isfordink, Cas J.
AU - Cheng, Wei‐Han
AU - Drenth, Joost P. H.
AU - de Knegt, Robert J.
AU - Blokzijl, Hans
AU - Boland, Greet
AU - Dofferhoff, Anthonius S. M.
AU - van Hoek, Bart
AU - van Nieuwkoop, Cees
AU - Sonneveld, Milan J.
AU - van der Valk, Marc
N1 - Funding Information: Funding: This study was non‐funded. The model has been provided by AbbVie and the Centre for Disease Analysis. AbbVie did not have any role in study design, data collection, management, analysis and/or interpretation. Data from the CELINE project has been used in this study. The CELINE project is supported with an unrestricted grant from Gilead Sciences. Gilead Sciences did not have any role in study design, data collection, management, analysis and/or interpretation. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2021/10/1
Y1 - 2021/10/1
N2 - Background: The Netherlands strives for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, in accordance with the World Health Organization targets. An accurate estimate when HCV elimination will be reached is elusive. We have embarked on a nationwide HCV elimination project (CELINE) that allowed us to harvest detailed data on the Dutch HCV epidemic. This study aims to provide a well‐supported timeline towards HCV elimination in The Netherlands. Methods: A previously published Markov model was used, adopting published data and unpublished CELINE project data. Two main scenarios were devised. In the Status Quo scenario, 2020 diagnosis and treatment levels remained constant in subsequent years. In the Gradual Decline scenario, an annual decrease of 10% in both diagnoses and treatments was implemented, starting in 2020. WHO incidence target was disregarded, due to low HCV incidence in The Netherlands (≤5 per 100,000). Results: Following the Status Quo and Gradual Decline scenarios, The Netherlands would meet WHO’s elimination targets by 2027 and 2032, respectively. From 2015 to 2030, liver‐related mortality would be reduced by 97% in the Status Quo and 93% in the Gradual Decline scenario. Compared to the Status Quo scenario, the Gradual Decline scenario would result in 12 excess cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 18 excess cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 20 excess cases of liverrelated death from 2020-2030. Conclusions: The Netherlands is on track to reach HCV elimination by 2030. However, it is vital that HCV elimination remains high on the agenda to ensure adequate numbers of patients are being diagnosed and treated.
AB - Background: The Netherlands strives for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, in accordance with the World Health Organization targets. An accurate estimate when HCV elimination will be reached is elusive. We have embarked on a nationwide HCV elimination project (CELINE) that allowed us to harvest detailed data on the Dutch HCV epidemic. This study aims to provide a well‐supported timeline towards HCV elimination in The Netherlands. Methods: A previously published Markov model was used, adopting published data and unpublished CELINE project data. Two main scenarios were devised. In the Status Quo scenario, 2020 diagnosis and treatment levels remained constant in subsequent years. In the Gradual Decline scenario, an annual decrease of 10% in both diagnoses and treatments was implemented, starting in 2020. WHO incidence target was disregarded, due to low HCV incidence in The Netherlands (≤5 per 100,000). Results: Following the Status Quo and Gradual Decline scenarios, The Netherlands would meet WHO’s elimination targets by 2027 and 2032, respectively. From 2015 to 2030, liver‐related mortality would be reduced by 97% in the Status Quo and 93% in the Gradual Decline scenario. Compared to the Status Quo scenario, the Gradual Decline scenario would result in 12 excess cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 18 excess cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 20 excess cases of liverrelated death from 2020-2030. Conclusions: The Netherlands is on track to reach HCV elimination by 2030. However, it is vital that HCV elimination remains high on the agenda to ensure adequate numbers of patients are being diagnosed and treated.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Elimination
KW - HCV
KW - Hepatitis C
KW - Model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85116683047&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10194562
DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10194562
M3 - Article
C2 - 34640576
SN - 2077-0383
VL - 10
JO - Journal of clinical medicine
JF - Journal of clinical medicine
IS - 19
M1 - 4562
ER -